Urban mining is emerging as a strategic pillar of energy security, turning end-of-life batteries into a valuable source of critical minerals, while strengthening circularity, resource resilience and India’s clean energy ambitions.
In 17th century Holland, tulips became an unlikely symbol of wealth, speculation and changing perceptions of value. During the famous tulip episode of 1636–37, some rare bulbs changed hands for extraordinary sums. One documented bulb sold for 5,000 guilders, roughly the price of a respectable Amsterdam house at the time. The important lesson is not really about tulips. It is about how societies learn to value something differently.
Today, we are witnessing something similar, but now tulips have been replaced with batteries in terms of value perception. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and graphite were once largely industrial commodities, but electrification has transformed them into strategic resources. And still, there is an irony here. We are aggressively scouting the earth for new underground mineral deposits, completely ignoring the fact that massive mountains of those exact same materials are already sitting directly above ground. They are inside electric vehicles (EV), energy storage systems, electronics and renewable energy infrastructure. After spending the last few years working on solar circularity, I am convinced that some of the most important clean energy companies of the future will not be the ones searching for new lithium deposits. They will be the ones building profitable businesses around recovering and reusing the lithium we have already mined.
Urban mining is the recovery of valuable materials from products, infrastructure and waste already circulating within an economy. The concept turns conventional mining on its head. Instead of asking where the next deposit lies, we ask where the minerals already extracted have gone. An EV battery offers an excellent example because its materials – Li, Ni, Co, Mn, and Cu, among others remain valuable even after its automotive performance declines. These materials can be recovered, reused or returned to the supply chain. I often think of an old battery as processed ore delivered directly into the city. Someone has already explored the battery for the minerals, extracted them, refined them, transported them and incorporated them into a sophisticated product. Calling that product ‘waste’ thus captures only the end of its first life, not its remaining material value. Metals behave very differently from petroleum. Burn a litre of petrol and its energy disappears permanently through combustion. Li, Cu, & Ni remain physically present after a battery stops serving its original purpose. The battery may be finished. The minerals are not.
The urgency comes from the extraordinary speed of electrification. Global battery demand for the energy sector reached 1 TWh in 2024, with electric vehicle batteries accounting for more than 950 GWh of that demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects EV battery demand alone to exceed 3 TWh by 2030 under its stated policies scenario. That growth creates a second challenge alongside decarbonisation. It creates an enormous materials requirement. The IEA projects lithium demand to grow around fivefold by 2040, while graphite and nickel demand roughly double under current policy settings. Meeting that demand could require around $500 billion in new mining investment through 2040.
“Critical mineral processing remains highly concentrated geographically. This creates a strategic vulnerability for countries building clean energy manufacturing capacity”
At the same time, critical mineral processing remains highly concentrated geographically. This creates a strategic vulnerability for countries building clean energy manufacturing capacity. A disruption in mining or refining can quickly become a disruption in batteries, EVs, storage systems and renewable energy deployment. Urban mining cannot eliminate primary mining. But it can reduce the amount of new material that must be extracted. So-called ‘Battery Waste’ is still tomorrow's feedstock. The scale of future battery waste is beginning to resemble an emerging resource industry.
It is estimated that global retired lithium-ion batteries available for recycling could reach approximately 314 GWh by 2030. India alone could generate around 84–115 GWh of retired batteries during that period. These numbers should change how policymakers think about waste. This is not simply a future disposal problem. It is a future supply of secondary lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and other valuable materials. Estimates tell us that recycling could reduce the need for new mining activity by 5–30 percent by 2040, depending on the mineral and scenario. Recycling could also reduce cumulative mining investment requirements by around 30 percent through 2040.
The economic argument is becoming difficult to ignore as the economics of recycling are changing because of the sheer scale of operations. For years, battery recycling was treated mainly as an environmental compliance activity. Recycling facilities can create value from several streams, including recovered lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite and black mass. Additional value can come through recycling services and policy mechanisms such as Extended Producer Responsibility. This diversification matters for investors. A recycler does not necessarily need to depend on one metal price to make the business work. The economics increasingly depend on how efficiently the entire battery value chain is managed.
“Recycling facilities can create value from several streams, including recovered lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite and black mass”
Technology is strengthening this case as well - recovery rates of approximately 95 percent for Co, Ni and Mn and up to 80 percent for lithium through modern hydrometallurgical approaches. Yet the biggest bottleneck is the collection part. Global lithium-ion battery collection efficiency remains around 40–45 percent, while India is working towards a 63 percent collection target by 2027. A sophisticated recycling facility without reliable feedstock is still an expensive building. That makes collection networks, reverse logistics and battery traceability central parts of the urban mining business. The smartest battery may not be recycled immediately. Circularity also changes how we define the end of a battery's life. An electric vehicle battery may no longer provide sufficient performance for mobility while retaining substantial capacity for stationary applications. The ISA Guidelines recommend considering batteries with more than 70 percent remaining capacity for repurposing. These batteries can potentially provide another 5–8 years of service. Applications include solar storage, telecom infrastructure, commercial energy management and microgrids. Second-life systems can also cost 50–70 percent less than new battery systems, creating an additional economic opportunity. The logic is straightforward. First, use the battery. Then reuse it. Finally recover its materials. This approach maximises the economic productivity of every kilogram of critical mineral extracted from the earth.
India is approaching this transition from an interesting position. The country is simultaneously expanding electric mobility, renewable energy, battery storage and domestic clean technology manufacturing. That creates an opportunity to build circular infrastructure before retired battery volumes become overwhelming. The projected 84–115 GWh of retired batteries by 2030 provides a significant future feedstock base. India's Battery Waste Management Rules already provide an important regulatory foundation through collection, refurbishment, recycling and recycled-content requirements. The 2024 amendment requires minimum recycled material in electric vehicle batteries to reach 20 percent from 2030–31 onwards. The next challenge is implementation. India needs collection centres, safe transport systems, battery diagnostics, second-life markets, recycling plants, refining capacity and standards for recovered materials. More importantly, it needs to recognise the strategic value of these capabilities. India is often described as a future generator of battery waste. I would rather describe it as a potential producer of secondary critical minerals. That distinction changes the policy conversation.
First, countries need to build collection systems before end-of-life volumes rise sharply. Feedstock security will determine whether recycling infrastructure becomes commercially viable. Second, manufacturers should design batteries for disassembly, diagnostics, repair, repurposing and material recovery. Circularity cannot be efficiently added after a product becomes waste. Third, secoZnd-life markets need reliable testing, certification, warranties and financing. A battery's State of Health should become an economic variable, not simply a technical measurement. Fourth, recycling technologies must keep pace with changing chemistries. LFP batteries now represent a much larger share of the market, changing the material composition and economics of future recycling. Finally, governments should treat EPR as an industrial policy instrument alongside its environmental function. Predictable rules can create investment certainty and strengthen markets for secondary raw materials.
After spending the last few years working on solar circularity, I have become convinced that the next generation of clean energy companies will not necessarily discover the next lithium deposit. They will be the companies that recover the lithium we have already extracted. This does not mean primary mining becomes irrelevant. The scale of future energy demand will require new mines, processing facilities and responsible resource development. But recycling can change how much new material we need and how resilient those supply chains become. Perhaps the greatest irony of the clean energy transition is this: while the world continues searching for the next critical mineral discovery, one of the largest mineral reserves on the planet is quietly sitting in parking lots, warehouses and substations. It is waiting for us to recognise its value.
The tulip episode changed perceptions because ordinary bulbs became objects of extraordinary economic attention. Our challenge today is different, but the underlying lesson remains remarkably relevant. Value is not always found where we first expect it. The next critical mineral rush may not require us to dig deeper. We may simply need to look around us.
The author is a solar PV expert. The views expressed are her own.